Parliamentary Math

Tomorrow’s confidence vote on the Czech government will definitely be interesting, and in a story about how the Communists are meeting to discuss their options in the vote, had rundown on the way the votes are set to go so far.

101 votes are required to bring down the government. The opposition ODS, along with the Christian Democrats and one nonaligned MP have 79 votes. Which means they’re 22 short. The Communists have 41 votes.

Today’s always-excellent Final Word had an interesting take: the Communists are in a bind, because if they vote to bring down the Gross government, it’ll likely pave the way for a rightist government, with the ODS and KDU-ÄŒSL. But if they don’t vote the government out, they’ll be giving the Social Democrats a second chance to regroup before the next elections.

I can see that, so it’s possible that the Communists would split their vote, partially as a way of providing cover either way, but also as a way of buying time and doing some last-minute horse-trading. They may also walk out during the vote as a way of providing tacit support.

But what is it in the near- to medium-term that they really want? Ministerial seats? Early elections? Put your prognostications in the comments.

2 thoughts on “Parliamentary Math

  1. i usually read your take before the final Word and I like the stark differences you generally have. Hold to your own, Doug, don’t be swayed by the other opinion makers…

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